Newry City AFC 1-4 Ards FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.59
Over Pick
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.41
No
45%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.8
2-3
37%
2.04
4-5
30%
2.61
6+
13%
6.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.5pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.7pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.6pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
67%
-11.9pp
45%
BTTS No
33%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newry City AFC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ards FC EU Bookmakers 37%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -18%
2.38/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/2.01
+30% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newry City AFC
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Ards FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.03.2022 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 4-0 HT 2-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
04.02.2022 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRK
29.10.2021 Ards FC Ards FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC KİRL1
27.08.2021 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 2-1 HT 0-1 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
POST-MATCH Newry City AFC vs Ards FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ards FC cruised past Newry City AFC 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newry City AFC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Newry City AFC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newry City AFC and 0.50 for Ards FC.

What was the final score of Newry City AFC vs Ards FC?

Newry City AFC 1-4 Ards FC in the North Ireland - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newry City AFC vs Ards FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newry City AFC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newry City AFC 44%, draw 20%, Ards FC 36%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newry City AFC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newry City AFC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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