Al Ahed 1-0 Jwaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.56
No
35%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
5%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+8.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
65%
BTTS Yes
60%
+4.7pp
35%
BTTS No
40%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Jwaya EU Bookmakers 32%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-25% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Al Ahed vs Jwaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed squeezed past Jwaya 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Al Ahed made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (65%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Al Ahed vs Jwaya?

Al Ahed 1-0 Jwaya in the Lebanon - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahed vs Jwaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Al Ahed 40%, draw 24%, Jwaya 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahed) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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