Nairobi United 0-1 Mathare United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 4 Dec 2025

Nairobi United
0-1 HT 0-0
Mathare United
📅04/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

Nairobi United vs Mathare United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.1pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.4pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nairobi United v Mathare United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mathare United EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.50/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.38
+34% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Nairobi United 0-1 Mathare United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nairobi United
0-1
AWAY Mathare United
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nairobi United vs Mathare United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mathare United edged past Nairobi United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Nairobi United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nairobi United had 54% of the ball to Mathare United's 46%, shots finished 11-16.

What was the final score of Nairobi United vs Mathare United?

Nairobi United 0-1 Mathare United in the Kenya - Premier League on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nairobi United vs Mathare United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nairobi United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nairobi United 41%, draw 31%, Mathare United 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nairobi United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nairobi United) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →