Bologna 1-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Jan 2024

Bologna
1-1 HT 0-1
Genoa
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Bologna vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
21%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.48
Over
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.19
2-3
37%
1.81
4-5
21%
5.76
6+
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.23
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
15%
4.46
X/2
6%
6.46
X/X
18%
3.47
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
9%
5.45
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.6pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
21%
Away Win
27%
-6.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.4pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bologna v Genoa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.22/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.23
+1% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.2 Crosses 17.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bologna vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Genoa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
404 Passes 241
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
21.05.2022 Genoa Genoa 0-1 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
21.09.2021 Bologna Bologna 2-2 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
12.05.2021 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
09.01.2021 Genoa Genoa 2-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
15.02.2020 Bologna Bologna 0-3 HT 0-2 Genoa Genoa İTA
25.09.2019 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Bologna 1-1 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-1
AWAY Genoa
1.33 xG 0.13
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 2
584 Passes 203
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 3
39 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna and Genoa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bologna at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Bologna had 71% of the ball to Genoa's 29%, shots finished 21-3, expected goals 1.33 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bologna and 1.50 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Genoa?

Bologna 1-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bologna 46%, draw 33%, Genoa 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bologna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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