Macarthur 1-1 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 5 Jan 2024

Macarthur
1-1 HT 0-1
Newcastle Jets
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
30%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.17
X/2
7%
6.62
X/X
11%
5.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.75
2/2
18%
4.02
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.1pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Newcastle Jets — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 36%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
1.93/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.90
+4% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
23.0 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.66
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
256 Passes 396
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
01.05.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
26.02.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.12.2021 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS

Macarthur 1-1 Newcastle Jets — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-1
AWAY Newcastle Jets
3.38 xG 2.02
57% Ball Possession 43%
27 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
13 Corners 1
481 Passes 382
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
53 Box Touches 28
32 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Newcastle Jets couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Macarthur had 57% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 43%, shots finished 27-16, expected goals 3.38 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Macarthur and 1.50 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Macarthur 1-1 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 43%, draw 25%, Newcastle Jets 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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