Brentford 1-3 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Feb 2024

Brentford
1-3 HT 1-1
Manchester City
📅05/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Brentford vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
53%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
20.3
1/X
5%
18.4
X/1
7%
14.3
X/2
15%
3.67
X/X
16%
7.19
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
28%
1.67
2/X
5%
18.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.3 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.1pp
53%
Away Win
66%
-13.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brentford v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 70%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.54/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/1.06
+15% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
261 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 81%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.0
17.5 Crosses 18.7
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Brentford vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Manchester City
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.83 xG 1.63
27% Ball Possession 73%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
162 Passes 590
65% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.05.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
12.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 1-2 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
09.02.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
29.12.2021 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Brentford 1-3 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
1-3
AWAY Manchester City
1.04 xG 2.09
28% Ball Possession 72%
9 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 15
8 Corners 13
203 Passes 679
73% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 44
22 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City beat Brentford 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brentford had 28% of the ball to Manchester City's 72%, shots finished 9-25, expected goals 1.04 to 2.09.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Brentford and 1.00 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Manchester City?

Brentford 1-3 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Brentford 21%, draw 26%, Manchester City 53%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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