Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Feb 2024

Rayo Vallecano
1-2 HT 1-2
Sevilla
📅05/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
34%
3.18
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.61
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.94
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
10%
4.32
X/2
10%
6.74
X/X
17%
3.99
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
9%
5.48
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.1pp
34%
Draw
28%
+5.8pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.39/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.49
-11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
24.4 Crosses 20.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sevilla
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.80 xG 1.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 Passes 389
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.02.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
29.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
13.03.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
15.08.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 3-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
25.04.2019 Sevilla Sevilla 5-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Sevilla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-2
AWAY Sevilla
1.81 xG 1.30
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 0
499 Passes 198
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
25 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla edged past Rayo Vallecano 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 34% / 26%) promised a tight game; Sevilla found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 67% of the ball to Sevilla's 33%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.81 to 1.30 — on chances, Rayo Vallecano could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.00 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 40%, draw 34%, Sevilla 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →