Roma 4-0 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Feb 2024

Roma
4-0 HT 2-0
Cagliari
📅05/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Roma vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.05
X/1
17%
3.61
X/2
8%
12.0
X/X
13%
5.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.6
2/2
8%
9.63
2/X
6%
17.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roma v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.94/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.86
+17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
463 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
19.2 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Roma vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.35 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
386 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-4 HT 0-2 Roma Roma İTA
16.01.2022 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
27.10.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
25.04.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
23.12.2020 Roma Roma 3-2 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
01.03.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 3-4 HT 1-2 Roma Roma İTA

Roma 4-0 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
4-0
AWAY Cagliari
2.71 xG 0.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
419 Passes 359
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
29 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma cruised past Cagliari 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roma had 53% of the ball to Cagliari's 47%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.71 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Roma and 1.67 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Roma vs Cagliari?

Roma 4-0 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Roma 54%, draw 25%, Cagliari 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5
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