Brezilya U23 0-1 Paraguay U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
5%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya U23 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Paraguay U23 EU Bookmakers 21%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.5 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya U23
0-1
AWAY Paraguay U23
1.06 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
5 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
230 Passes 156
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
11 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brezilya U23 vs Paraguay U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paraguay U23 squeezed past Brezilya U23 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Brezilya U23 at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brezilya U23 had 55% of the ball to Paraguay U23's 45%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 1.06 to 1.21.

What was the final score of Brezilya U23 vs Paraguay U23?

Brezilya U23 0-1 Paraguay U23 in the CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya U23 vs Paraguay U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Brezilya U23 50%, draw 23%, Paraguay U23 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Brezilya U23) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brezilya U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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