05/02/2024
·
17:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
1-2
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
Over Pick
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
48%
Home Win
57%
25%
Draw
23%
28%
Away Win
20%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
CSKA Moscow v Fakel — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
CSKA Moscow
The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
Fakel
The Market 23%
+7% /
+7%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+55% /
+55%
2.30/1.26
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
4.00/1.00
+24%
/
-16%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
+72%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
348 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
337 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
CSKA Moscow nicked a narrow win over Fakel 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had CSKA Moscow as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
CSKA Moscow 1-0 Fakel in the Friendlies on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moscow 48%, draw 25%, Fakel 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moscow) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (CSKA Moscow)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
5 Feb 2024