Tondela 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.4
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.94
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
1.29/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.14
-7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.1 Crosses 24.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.03 xG 1.30
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 341
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 5-1 HT 4-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
02.05.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
18.12.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
18.05.2021 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 2-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
06.02.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
05.02.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.90 xG 0.98
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
187 Passes 495
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela and Paços De Ferreira shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Tondela at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tondela had 32% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 68%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tondela and 2.33 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Tondela 1-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tondela 43%, draw 28%, Paços De Ferreira 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tondela), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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