Kapaz 0-2 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 5 Feb 2025

📅05/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
45%
Away Win
43%
+2.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.00/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.06
-3% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / -56%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
264 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
15.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-1 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 4-3 HT 3-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
09.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 3-3 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
06.08.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
21.05.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-3 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK got the better of Kapaz 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kapaz and 2.17 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Kapaz 0-2 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 26%, draw 28%, Neftçi PFK 45%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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