Stjarnan 1-1 Njardvik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - League Cup, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.18
Draw
21%
6.26
Away
22%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.98
Over Pick
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
37%
4-5
29%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
79%
-22.0pp
21%
Draw
12%
+8.6pp
22%
Away Win
8%
+13.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Njardvik EU Bookmakers 11%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.08/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/2.76
-29% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
510 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stjarnan
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Njardvik
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 3-1 HT 0-0 Njardvik Njardvik İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stjarnan
1-1
AWAY Njardvik
66% Ball Possession 34%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stjarnan vs Njardvik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stjarnan and Njardvik couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Stjarnan at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stjarnan had 66% of the ball to Njardvik's 34%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Njardvik?

Stjarnan 1-1 Njardvik in the Iceland - League Cup on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Njardvik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 57%, draw 21%, Njardvik 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stjarnan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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