05/03/2024
·
19:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Al Najaf vs Newroz Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
27%
Draw
24%
28%
Away Win
29%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Al Najaf v Newroz — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Al Najaf
EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY
Newroz
EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+59% /
+59%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
14
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
5
298 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
313 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Al Najaf vs Newroz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Al Najaf edged past Newroz 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Najaf as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
What was the final score of Al Najaf vs Newroz?
Al Najaf 1-0 Newroz in the Iraq - Premier League on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Al Najaf vs Newroz?
Before kick-off our model rated a Al Najaf win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Najaf 45%, draw 27%, Newroz 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Najaf), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Al Najaf)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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