APR Kigali 1-0 Etoile de lEst — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ruanda - National Futbol League, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
Over
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
38%
4-5
19%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
25%
+9.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
48%
-10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME APR Kigali The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile de lEst The Market 53%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-68% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
177 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH APR Kigali vs Etoile de lEst
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

APR Kigali nicked a narrow win over Etoile de lEst 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; APR Kigali found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

What was the final score of APR Kigali vs Etoile de lEst?

APR Kigali 1-0 Etoile de lEst in the Ruanda - National Futbol League on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for APR Kigali vs Etoile de lEst?

Before kick-off our model rated an Etoile de lEst win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split APR Kigali 35%, draw 27%, Etoile de lEst 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Etoile de lEst) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Etoile de lEst) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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