Salernitana 2-2 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Apr 2024

Salernitana
2-2 HT 0-2
Sassuolo
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Salernitana vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.56
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
8%
6.61
X/2
15%
4.96
X/X
10%
4.71
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.04
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Salernitana v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 46%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.02/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.52
+6% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 83%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
23.1 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Salernitana vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.02 xG 1.95
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
332 Passes 405
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 1-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.04.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 3-0 HT 2-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
02.10.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 5-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
12.03.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
26.09.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
15.05.2010 Salernitana Salernitana 1-4 HT 0-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB

Salernitana 2-2 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
2-2
AWAY Sassuolo
1.18 xG 2.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
397 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 33
23 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana and Sassuolo couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sassuolo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Salernitana had 54% of the ball to Sassuolo's 46%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 1.18 to 2.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Salernitana and 2.33 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Sassuolo?

Salernitana 2-2 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 31%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 43%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5
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