Ingolstadt 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 5 Apr 2024

Ingolstadt
1-1 HT 0-1
Arminia Bielefeld
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Ingolstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 26% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.07
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
13%
5.19
X/2
13%
6.53
X/X
10%
5.05
2/1
11%
24.45
2/2
15%
4.24
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ingolstadt v Arminia Bielefeld — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.77/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.75
+19% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
12.3 Crosses –
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Ingolstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.97 xG 1.32
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
254 Passes 305
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 4-0 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
21.04.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
11.11.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
08.04.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
27.10.2017 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 HT 1-2 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
21.02.2014 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2

Ingolstadt 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
1-1
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt and Arminia Bielefeld couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ingolstadt at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 47% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 53%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.50 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Ingolstadt 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 3rd Division on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 42%, draw 22%, Arminia Bielefeld 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ingolstadt), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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