Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 5 Apr 2024

Western Sydney Wanderers
1-2 HT 0-1
Brisbane Roar
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.43
Over 2.5
62%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
16%
6.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.21
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
24.85
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
8%
5.66
X/2
9%
6.17
X/X
9%
5.81
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
18%
3.63
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+2.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.3pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-1.4pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -25%
1.86/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.61
+10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.0 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
409 Passes 341
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.12.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-2 HT 2-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
16.09.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 4-2 HT 2-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUK
23.12.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
22.10.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
13.05.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-3 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUK
09.04.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
1-2
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.21 xG 1.09
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
433 Passes 489
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
36 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar edged past Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Brisbane Roar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Western Sydney Wanderers had 47% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 53%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 2.21 to 1.09 — on chances, Western Sydney Wanderers could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers and 2.00 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar?

Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western Sydney Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Western Sydney Wanderers 39%, draw 24%, Brisbane Roar 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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