AC Horsens 1-0 Hillerod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.69
6+ Goals
12%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 27% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.79
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
14%
6.59
X/2
16%
4.76
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.03
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Hillerod EU Bookmakers 48%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.78/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.44
-52% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
16.6 Crosses 16.5
3.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Hillerod
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 2.07
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
302 Passes 370
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-3 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
29.09.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 0-0 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
1-0
AWAY Hillerod
0.76 xG 1.35
26% Ball Possession 74%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
133 Passes 597
53% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 36
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Hillerod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens squeezed past Hillerod 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AC Horsens had 26% of the ball to Hillerod's 74%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.76 to 1.35 — on chances, Hillerod could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hillerod led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for AC Horsens and 1.50 for Hillerod.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Hillerod?

AC Horsens 1-0 Hillerod in the Denmark 1st Division on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Hillerod?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 31%, draw 25%, Hillerod 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
5 Apr 2024
20:00 B93 Kopenhag vs FC Helsingor Analysis →