Farense 2-0 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Apr 2024

Farense
2-0 HT 2-0
Boavista
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Boavista Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.92
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
12%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.55
X/2
9%
7.0
X/X
10%
4.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
28.0
2/2
10%
5.38
2/X
6%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Boavista — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.76/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.34
+11% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
22.8 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Farense vs Boavista Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Boavista
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 0.94
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
236 Passes 378
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Boavista Boavista 1-3 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
21.03.2021 Boavista Boavista 0-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
08.11.2020 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
23.02.2002 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POR
30.09.2001 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
08.04.2001 Boavista Boavista 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR

Farense 2-0 Boavista — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
2-0
AWAY Boavista
2.15 xG 1.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 12
228 Passes 275
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farense vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense saw off Boavista 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Farense as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Farense had 44% of the ball to Boavista's 56%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 2.15 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Farense and 1.00 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Farense vs Boavista?

Farense 2-0 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Farense 45%, draw 28%, Boavista 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✗ BTTS Yes
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