Mathare United 3-2 Posta Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
23%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.3pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Posta Rangers EU Bookmakers 37%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/0.46
-100% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / +98%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Posta Rangers
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.11.2024 Posta Rangers Posta Rangers 0-2 HT 0-1 Mathare United Mathare United KEN
17.03.2022 Mathare United Mathare United 2-3 HT 1-0 Posta Rangers Posta Rangers KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mathare United
3-2
AWAY Posta Rangers
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs Posta Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mathare United squeezed past Posta Rangers 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Mathare United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mathare United had 44% of the ball to Posta Rangers's 56%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mathare United and 1.50 for Posta Rangers.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs Posta Rangers?

Mathare United 3-2 Posta Rangers in the Kenya - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Posta Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mathare United win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 35%, draw 31%, Posta Rangers 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mathare United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mathare United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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