Stade Gabesien 2-1 EGS Gafsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 2nd Division Yükselme, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.23
Over 2.5
44%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
65%
-2.8pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.6pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+15.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-15.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Gabesien EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.95/0.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.37/2.41
+19% / +146% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
395 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Gabesien
0W-1D-2L
AWAY EGS Gafsa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
7 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.12.2022 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 2-1 HT 1-1 Stade Gabesien Stade Gabesien TUN2
12.03.2022 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Stade Gabesien Stade Gabesien TUN2
06.02.2022 Stade Gabesien Stade Gabesien 0-1 HT 0-0 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN2
POST-MATCH Stade Gabesien vs EGS Gafsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Gabesien nicked a narrow win over EGS Gafsa 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Stade Gabesien as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, EGS Gafsa led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Stade Gabesien and 1.00 for EGS Gafsa.

What was the final score of Stade Gabesien vs EGS Gafsa?

Stade Gabesien 2-1 EGS Gafsa in the Tunisia - 2nd Division Yükselme on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Gabesien vs EGS Gafsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stade Gabesien win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Stade Gabesien 63%, draw 20%, EGS Gafsa 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stade Gabesien) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stade Gabesien) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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