Östersunds FK 1-1 Örebro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 5 May 2024

Östersunds FK
1-1 HT 1-0
Örebro
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Östersunds FK vs Örebro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.66
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.24
X/2
8%
7.55
X/X
7%
4.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.0
2/2
12%
5.94
2/X
7%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Östersunds FK v Örebro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Östersunds FK EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Örebro EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -14%
1.48/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.78
-8% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Östersunds FK vs Örebro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Östersunds FK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Örebro
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.76
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
302 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 4-3 HT 3-2 Örebro Örebro İSÇ2
09.04.2023 Örebro Örebro 0-0 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
10.09.2022 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇ2
09.05.2022 Örebro Örebro 1-0 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
22.09.2021 Örebro Örebro 2-0 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ
18.04.2021 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 5-0 HT 3-0 Örebro Örebro İSÇ
POST-MATCH Östersunds FK vs Örebro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Östersunds FK and Örebro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Östersunds FK at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Östersunds FK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Östersunds FK and 1.00 for Örebro.

What was the final score of Östersunds FK vs Örebro?

Östersunds FK 1-1 Örebro in the Sweden - Superettan on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Östersunds FK vs Örebro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Östersunds FK win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Östersunds FK 51%, draw 24%, Örebro 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Östersunds FK), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Östersunds FK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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