AFC Malmö 3-1 Lunds BK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
46%
-10.6pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.6pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Malmö EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lunds BK EU Bookmakers 32%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.78/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.76
+10% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Malmö
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lunds BK
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Lunds BK Lunds BK 3-0 HT 1-0 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
08.04.2023 AFC Malmö 0-0 HT 0-0 Lunds BK Lunds BK İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Malmö
3-1
AWAY Lunds BK
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Malmö vs Lunds BK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Malmö beat Lunds BK 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 34% — and on the day AFC Malmö made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Malmö had 57% of the ball to Lunds BK's 43%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lunds BK led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for AFC Malmö and 1.50 for Lunds BK.

What was the final score of AFC Malmö vs Lunds BK?

AFC Malmö 3-1 Lunds BK in the Sweden - 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Malmö vs Lunds BK?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Malmö win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AFC Malmö 36%, draw 31%, Lunds BK 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Malmö) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Malmö) ✗ Under 2.5
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