Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Estudiantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
69%
1.48
Over
31%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
45%
2.22
2-3
33%
1.8
4-5
14%
5.57
6+
8%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.22 — our 45% vs market 38.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.23
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
13%
6.25
X/2
11%
4.52
X/X
20%
3.58
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.32
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
29%
+5.6pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.4pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.0pp
69%
Under 2.5
64%
+5.4pp
31%
Over 2.5
36%
-5.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.8pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes The Market 45%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -19%
0.94/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.99
-15% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.2 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Estudiantes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.35
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
349 Passes 216
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.05.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 2-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
17.10.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
25.05.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-0 HT 2-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes LKU
08.04.2022 Estudiantes Estudiantes 4-1 HT 2-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield LKU
07.03.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
28.11.2021 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-0 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
1-1
AWAY Estudiantes
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
434 Passes 421
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 50% of the ball to Estudiantes's 50%, shots finished 17-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estudiantes led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.33 for Estudiantes.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes?

Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Estudiantes in the Argentina - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 35%, draw 33%, Estudiantes 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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