Smouha 1-0 Zamalek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.5pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.9pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-5.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smouha EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Zamalek EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.32/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.28
+15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
257 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 71%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
16.5 Crosses 18.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smouha
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Zamalek
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.30 xG 1.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
254 Passes 348
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.10.2023 Zamalek Zamalek 5-1 HT 3-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
13.02.2023 Smouha Smouha 1-3 HT 0-3 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
19.10.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 2-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
24.07.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 2-0 HT 1-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
15.02.2022 Smouha Smouha 2-0 HT 0-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
06.05.2021 Zamalek Zamalek 2-1 HT 2-1 Smouha Smouha MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smouha
1-0
AWAY Zamalek
0.61 xG 0.46
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
216 Passes 509
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 32
4 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Smouha vs Zamalek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smouha squeezed past Zamalek 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 31%) promised a tight game; Smouha found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Smouha had 34% of the ball to Zamalek's 66%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.61 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zamalek led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Smouha and 2.33 for Zamalek.

What was the final score of Smouha vs Zamalek?

Smouha 1-0 Zamalek in the Egypt - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smouha vs Zamalek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smouha win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Smouha 36%, draw 32%, Zamalek 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Smouha), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Smouha) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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