Dinamo Moscow 3-2 FC Sochi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.42
2-3 Goals
45%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.24
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.35
X/1
14%
4.09
X/2
4%
8.51
X/X
8%
6.19
2/1
4%
20.45
2/2
14%
6.0
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -25%
1.69/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.42
-19% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.3 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Sochi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.05 xG 1.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 333
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 3-3 HT 1-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
01.04.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
09.09.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-1 HT 2-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
21.05.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-5 HT 1-4 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
19.09.2021 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
16.12.2020 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3-2
AWAY FC Sochi
2.15 xG 1.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
23 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
316 Passes 446
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
36 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs FC Sochi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow edged past FC Sochi 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 44% of the ball to FC Sochi's 56%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 2.15 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Sochi led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 2.33 for FC Sochi.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs FC Sochi?

Dinamo Moscow 3-2 FC Sochi in the Russia - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs FC Sochi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 47%, draw 25%, FC Sochi 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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