Botafogo 3-2 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Jun 2025

Botafogo
3-2 HT 1-0
Ceara
📅05/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Botafogo vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
22.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.15
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
16.5
X/1
17%
3.9
X/2
8%
10.3
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1
10%
27.0
2/2
8%
9.24
2/X
6%
18.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.44/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.44
+11% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
22.3 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1

Botafogo vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ceara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.40 xG 1.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
360 Passes 340
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.08.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
18.04.2022 Ceara Ceara 1-3 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
26.02.2021 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
31.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 2-2 HT 2-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
08.12.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
15.09.2019 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Botafogo 3-2 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-2
AWAY Ceara
2.55 xG 0.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
453 Passes 312
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Ceara 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 58% of the ball to Ceara's 42%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.55 to 0.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Botafogo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Botafogo and 1.17 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Ceara?

Botafogo 3-2 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 52%, draw 27%, Ceara 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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