Özbekistan (K) 3-3 Nepal (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup Qualifiers, 5 Jul 2025

Özbekistan (K)
3-3
Nepal (K)
📅05/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Asian Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Özbekistan (K) vs Nepal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.97
Over Pick
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
32%
4-5
30%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.9pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Özbekistan (K) v Nepal (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Özbekistan (K) The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nepal (K) The Market 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Özbekistan (K) 3-3 Nepal (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Özbekistan (K)
3-3
AWAY Nepal (K)
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Özbekistan (K) vs Nepal (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Özbekistan (K) and Nepal (K) shared the points in a 3-3 draw. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Özbekistan (K) at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Özbekistan (K) had 45% of the ball to Nepal (K)'s 55%, shots finished 6-14.

What was the final score of Özbekistan (K) vs Nepal (K)?

Özbekistan (K) 3-3 Nepal (K) in the Asian Cup Qualifiers on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Özbekistan (K) vs Nepal (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Özbekistan (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Özbekistan (K) 52%, draw 29%, Nepal (K) 19%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Özbekistan (K)), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Özbekistan (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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