Cracovia Krakow 1-3 Widzew Lodz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 5 Aug 2024

Cracovia Krakow
1-3 HT 1-1
Widzew Lodz
📅05/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 26% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.27
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
11%
13.05
X/1
15%
5.05
X/2
13%
6.11
X/X
10%
4.6
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
14%
4.26
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cracovia Krakow v Widzew Lodz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.43/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.40
+18% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.6 Crosses 21.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cracovia Krakow
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Widzew Lodz
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.10 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
353 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-2 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
17.09.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
02.04.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
09.09.2022 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
04.05.2014 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
29.03.2014 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL

Cracovia Krakow 1-3 Widzew Lodz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
1-3
AWAY Widzew Lodz
0.62 xG 0.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
274 Passes 313
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Widzew Lodz got the better of Cracovia Krakow 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Widzew Lodz made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 48% of the ball to Widzew Lodz's 52%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.62 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Widzew Lodz led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.67 for Widzew Lodz.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz?

Cracovia Krakow 1-3 Widzew Lodz in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 40%, draw 28%, Widzew Lodz 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✗ Under 2.5
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