Independiente 1-1 Aurora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 5 Aug 2026

📅05/08/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+5.9pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.5pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurora EU Bookmakers 40%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.16/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.28
-33% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
245 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
1-1
AWAY Aurora
1.35 xG 2.52
16 Total Shots 24
9 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 12
226 Passes 493
14 Box Touches 52
8 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente and Aurora shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 16-24, expected goals 1.35 to 2.52.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Aurora?

Independiente 1-1 Aurora in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 05/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Aurora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Independiente 44%, draw 21%, Aurora 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Independiente), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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