Montserrat 1-4 El Salvador — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
7.18
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
46%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.19
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 33% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
11%
+17.3pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.0pp
46%
Away Win
68%
-21.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.7pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montserrat EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY El Salvador EU Bookmakers 71%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
0.39/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/0.92
+2% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -64%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 83%
6.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
7.4 Crosses 14.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montserrat
0W-1D-0L
AWAY El Salvador
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2 Corners 6
29.03.2021 Montserrat Montserrat 1-1 HT 0-1 El Salvador El Salvador DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montserrat
1-4
AWAY El Salvador
0.22 xG 2.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
3 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
188 Passes 333
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montserrat vs El Salvador
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Salvador cruised past Montserrat 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had El Salvador as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montserrat had 38% of the ball to El Salvador's 62%, shots finished 3-14, expected goals 0.22 to 2.06.

What was the final score of Montserrat vs El Salvador?

Montserrat 1-4 El Salvador in the CONCACAF Champions League on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montserrat vs El Salvador?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Salvador win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Montserrat 29%, draw 25%, El Salvador 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Salvador) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Salvador) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CON More CONCACAF Champions League
5 Sep 2024
23:00 Guyana vs Surinam Analysis →