Caldas 4-0 Portomosense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.16
Draw
11%
7.78
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.46
Over 2.5
66%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.51
No
47%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
4%
2/1
11%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
82%
-5.7pp
11%
Draw
10%
+0.9pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+4.8pp
34%
Under 2.5
25%
+8.3pp
66%
Over 2.5
75%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
36%
+17.3pp
47%
BTTS No
64%
-17.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Portomosense EU Bookmakers 9%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-66% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
426 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
4-0
AWAY Portomosense
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Portomosense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas ran out comfortable winners over Portomosense 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Caldas had 53% of the ball to Portomosense's 47%, shots finished 21-9.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Portomosense?

Caldas 4-0 Portomosense in the Portugal - Cup on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Portomosense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Caldas 77%, draw 11%, Portomosense 12%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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