05/11/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Fountain Gate vs Pamba Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
14%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Fountain Gate win — 63% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
BTTS No
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
58%
19%
Draw
24%
18%
Away Win
18%
43%
Under 2.5
50%
57%
Over 2.5
50%
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
54%
BTTS No
51%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fountain Gate v Pamba — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Fountain Gate
EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY
Pamba
EU Bookmakers 21%
-20% /
-20%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-36% /
-36%
0.00/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/1.00
-100%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+10%
56%
Ball Possession
44%
15
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
341 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
252 · 70%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Fountain Gate vs Pamba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Pamba beat Fountain Gate 3-1 away from home.
This one beat our numbers. Fountain Gate carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Fountain Gate vs Pamba?
Fountain Gate 1-3 Pamba in the Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fountain Gate vs Pamba?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fountain Gate win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Fountain Gate 63%, draw 19%, Pamba 18%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Fountain Gate), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Fountain Gate)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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