Fasil Ketema 1-0 Welwalo Adigrat Uni — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.44
No
56%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.5pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.2pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.9pp
56%
BTTS No
63%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Welwalo Adigrat Uni EU Bookmakers 17%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.02/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/1.67
-41% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fasil Ketema
1-0
AWAY Welwalo Adigrat Uni
53% Ball Possession 47%
4 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema nicked a narrow win over Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fasil Ketema as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fasil Ketema had 53% of the ball to Welwalo Adigrat Uni's 47%, shots finished 4-7.

What was the final score of Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni?

Fasil Ketema 1-0 Welwalo Adigrat Uni in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fasil Ketema win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fasil Ketema 50%, draw 31%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fasil Ketema), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fasil Ketema) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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