06/01/2024
·
11:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-2
Nairobi United vs MCF Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
Over
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No Pick
55%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
50%
4-5
12%
6+
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
25%
Home Win
20%
21%
Draw
24%
53%
Away Win
56%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nairobi United v MCF — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Nairobi United
The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY
MCF
The Market 60%
+12% /
+12%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+16%
/
+63%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
47%
Ball Possession
53%
9
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
265 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
381 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Nairobi United vs MCF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Nairobi United saw off MCF 2-0.
Our pre-match lean was MCF at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Nairobi United vs MCF?
Nairobi United 2-0 MCF in the Kenya - Super League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nairobi United vs MCF?
Before kick-off our model rated an MCF win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nairobi United 25%, draw 21%, MCF 53%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (MCF) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (MCF)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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