Trofense 1-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trofense EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 48%
+51% / +51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.35
-14% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trofense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
30% Ball Possession 70%
4 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 0-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trofense
1-3
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa got the better of Trofense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Trofense had 52% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 48%, shots finished 16-14.

What was the final score of Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Trofense 1-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trofense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Trofense 32%, draw 25%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
6 Jan 2024
14:00 Canelas 2010 vs Varzim Analysis →