Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 6 Feb 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
3-2 HT 0-1
Stuttgart
📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2023/2024

Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.79
6+ Goals
13%
7.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.02
X/2
9%
10.35
X/X
12%
6.08
2/1
6%
20.3
2/2
12%
7.27
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 10% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-12.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+11.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 23%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
2.22/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.15/1.49
+60% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +86%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
19.3 Crosses 25.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 5.0

Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.03 xG 1.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
405 Passes 401
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.05.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
12.02.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
19.09.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.02.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 HT 2-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3-2
AWAY Stuttgart
2.24 xG 0.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
579 Passes 440
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Stuttgart 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 56% of the ball to Stuttgart's 44%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.24 to 0.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.17 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Stuttgart in the Germany - DFB Cup on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 45%, draw 24%, Stuttgart 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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