Deportes Tolima 0-0 Independiente Medellin — Result, Stats & Model Review (Copa Sudamericana, 6 Mar 2024)

Deportes Tolima

0-0 HT 0-0

Independiente Medellin

📅06/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗

Copa Sudamericana – 2024

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

46%

2.0

Draw

26%

3.28

Away

28%

3.34

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57%

1.62

Over 2.5

43%

2.18

Both Teams to Score

Yes

45%

1.96

55%

1.75

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

32%

2.57

2-3 Goals

40%

1.77

4-5 Goals

19%

4.58

6+ Goals

24.85

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

19%

1/2

1/X

X/1

17%

X/2

13%

X/X

13%

2/1

10%

2/2

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

46%

Home Win

46%

+0.1pp

26%

Draw

27%

-0.9pp

27%

Away Win

27%

+0.8pp

57%

Under 2.5

58%

-1.1pp

43%

Over 2.5

42%

+1.1pp

45%

BTTS Yes

47%

-1.9pp

55%

BTTS No

53%

+1.9pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportes Tolima v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 50%

Head to Head

AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 30%

+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%

1.17/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.09

+16% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -44%

52% Ball Possession 48%

15 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Target 4

6 Corners 4

338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%

11.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0

12.6 Crosses 17.0

3.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Deportes Tolima

2W-3D-1L

AWAY Independiente Medellin

1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00

1.30 xG 0.73

46% Ball Possession 54%

13 Total Shots 15

3 Shots on Target 5

3 Corners 4

268 Passes 315

78% Pass Accuracy 78%

20 Box Touches 18

14 Crosses 19

3 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

15.09.2023 Deportes Tolima

1-1 HT 0-1

Independiente Medellin KOL

02.04.2023 Independiente Medellin

1-1 HT 1-1

Deportes Tolima KOL

18.08.2022 Independiente Medellin

0-1 HT 0-0

Deportes Tolima KOLK

28.07.2022 Deportes Tolima

1-3 HT 1-3

Independiente Medellin KOLK

11.07.2022 Deportes Tolima

1-1 HT 0-1

Independiente Medellin KOL

13.06.2022 Independiente Medellin

0-1 HT 0-1

Deportes Tolima KOL

Deportes Tolima 0-0 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Deportes Tolima

0-0

AWAY Independiente Medellin

0.68 xG 0.65

51% Ball Possession 49%

13 Total Shots 13

2 Shots on Target 1

7 Corners 4

322 Passes 294

80% Pass Accuracy 75%

24 Box Touches 17

23 Crosses 18

1 Yellow Cards 1

POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima and Independiente Medellin played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 51% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 49%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.68 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.00 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

Deportes Tolima 0-0 Independiente Medellin in the Copa Sudamericana on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 46%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin 27%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportes Tolima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No

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