Carabobo 1-1 Metropolitan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 6 Mar 2024

📅06/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.6
Over
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.54
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.66
6+
7%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.4pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carabobo The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Metropolitan The Market 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +52% / +52%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
Crosses 12.6
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carabobo
1-1
AWAY Metropolitan
1.36 xG 0.78
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
409 Passes 134
84% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Carabobo vs Metropolitan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carabobo and Metropolitan couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Carabobo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Carabobo had 69% of the ball to Metropolitan's 31%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.36 to 0.78.

What was the final score of Carabobo vs Metropolitan?

Carabobo 1-1 Metropolitan in the Copa Sudamericana on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carabobo vs Metropolitan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carabobo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Carabobo 45%, draw 28%, Metropolitan 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Carabobo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carabobo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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