Orlando Pirates 1-1 Ajax Cape Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 6 Mar 2024

Orlando Pirates
1-1 HT 1-0
Ajax Cape Town
📅06/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
South Afrika - Premier League – 2023/2024

Orlando Pirates vs Ajax Cape Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
13%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.97
Over 2.5
40%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.27
No
66%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.36
6+ Goals
8%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 35% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
72%
-8.3pp
23%
Draw
17%
+5.9pp
13%
Away Win
10%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
47%
+13.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
53%
-13.7pp
34%
BTTS Yes
40%
-5.7pp
66%
BTTS No
60%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orlando Pirates v Ajax Cape Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax Cape Town EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.39/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.53
-24% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -33%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
452 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
17.9 Crosses 13.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Orlando Pirates vs Ajax Cape Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando Pirates
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax Cape Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.74 xG 1.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
442 Passes 171
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town 2-1 HT 2-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
20.10.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town GAF8K
04.08.2015 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town GAF8K
09.05.2015 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town 2-2 HT 2-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
25.10.2014 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 4-1 HT 2-0 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town GAFLK
18.02.2014 Ajax Cape Town Ajax Cape Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL

Orlando Pirates 1-1 Ajax Cape Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando Pirates
1-1
AWAY Ajax Cape Town
0.83 xG 0.32
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
393 Passes 205
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orlando Pirates vs Ajax Cape Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando Pirates and Ajax Cape Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Orlando Pirates at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (66%) missed.

On the day, Orlando Pirates had 61% of the ball to Ajax Cape Town's 39%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.83 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Orlando Pirates and 1.00 for Ajax Cape Town.

What was the final score of Orlando Pirates vs Ajax Cape Town?

Orlando Pirates 1-1 Ajax Cape Town in the South Afrika - Premier League on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando Pirates vs Ajax Cape Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando Pirates win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Orlando Pirates 64%, draw 23%, Ajax Cape Town 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Orlando Pirates), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando Pirates) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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