Tolmin 2-1 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 6 Apr 2024

Tolmin
2-1 HT 1-1
Nafta
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Slovenia - 2.SNL – 2023/2024

Tolmin vs Nafta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.04
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
62%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
4%
X/2
11%
X/X
4%
2/1
10%
2/2
44%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-2.3pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.3pp
62%
Away Win
57%
+5.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tolmin v Nafta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tolmin EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 61%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.50/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.77
+150% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
6.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Tolmin vs Nafta Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tolmin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Nafta
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.09.2023 Nafta Nafta 3-0 HT 3-0 Tolmin Tolmin SLVN2
POST-MATCH Tolmin vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tolmin squeezed past Nafta 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Nafta at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

What was the final score of Tolmin vs Nafta?

Tolmin 2-1 Nafta in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tolmin vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nafta win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Tolmin 19%, draw 19%, Nafta 62%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nafta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nafta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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