Express 1-0 URA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

Express
1-0 HT 1-0
URA
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.74
Over 2.5
61%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.9
No
38%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
54%
-15.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
46%
+15.1pp
62%
BTTS Yes
49%
+13.1pp
38%
BTTS No
51%
-13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Express EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY URA EU Bookmakers 29%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.76/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.79
+3% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / +59%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Express
0W-2D-0L
AWAY URA
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
18.03.2022 Express Express 1-1 HT 0-1 URA URA UGA
11.12.2021 URA URA 0-0 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Express
1-0
AWAY URA
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Express vs URA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Express edged past URA 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Express as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Express had 38% of the ball to URA's 62%, shots finished 7-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Express and 0.50 for URA.

What was the final score of Express vs URA?

Express 1-0 URA in the Uganda - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Express vs URA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Express win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Express 41%, draw 29%, URA 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Express) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Express) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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