Brisbane City 2-1 St George Willawong — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 6 Apr 2025

Brisbane City
2-1 HT 1-0
St George Willawong
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Australia - Queensland NPL – 2025

Brisbane City vs St George Willawong Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-13.8pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane City v St George Willawong — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY St George Willawong EU Bookmakers 33%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.38/3.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.51
+16% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
14.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Brisbane City vs St George Willawong
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane City squeezed past St George Willawong 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brisbane City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Brisbane City vs St George Willawong?

Brisbane City 2-1 St George Willawong in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane City vs St George Willawong?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brisbane City 43%, draw 24%, St George Willawong 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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