La Louvière 2-1 Boussu Dour Borinage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
55%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 25% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
La Louvière win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Louvière EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 18%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
2.35/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.65
+26% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -23%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.8 Crosses 16.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Louvière
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
18.08.2024 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 0-1 HT 0-1 La Louvière La Louvière BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Louvière
2-1
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
1.87 xG 0.73
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
157 Passes 224
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH La Louvière vs Boussu Dour Borinage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Louvière nicked a narrow win over Boussu Dour Borinage 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had La Louvière as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, La Louvière had 42% of the ball to Boussu Dour Borinage's 58%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.87 to 0.73.

What was the final score of La Louvière vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

La Louvière 2-1 Boussu Dour Borinage in the Belgium - 1st Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Louvière vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

Before kick-off our model rated a La Louvière win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split La Louvière 55%, draw 24%, Boussu Dour Borinage 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (La Louvière), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (La Louvière) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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