Crystal Palace 4-0 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.5
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
19%
4.72
X/2
11%
7.85
X/X
11%
5.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.2
2/2
11%
5.07
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.2pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -23%
1.49/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.25
-6% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
372 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.0 Crosses 12.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Manchester United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.72 xG 1.39
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
258 Passes 528
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 0-1 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
26.09.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
04.02.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
18.01.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
22.05.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
05.12.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
4-0
AWAY Manchester United
1.75 xG 0.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
358 Passes 516
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace cruised past Manchester United 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Crystal Palace as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 43% of the ball to Manchester United's 57%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.75 to 0.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.17 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Manchester United?

Crystal Palace 4-0 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 48%, draw 25%, Manchester United 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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