Quilmes 1-1 Alvarado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 6 May 2024

Quilmes
1-1 HT 0-1
Alvarado
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Argentina - National Primera Liga – 2024

Quilmes vs Alvarado Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.54
Over 2.5
32%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.3pp
68%
Under 2.5
61%
+7.2pp
32%
Over 2.5
39%
-7.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.4pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Quilmes v Alvarado — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quilmes EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Alvarado EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.51/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.47
+12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
366 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Quilmes vs Alvarado Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quilmes
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Alvarado
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2022 Alvarado Alvarado 3-0 HT 2-0 Quilmes Quilmes ARJPBN
20.09.2021 Alvarado Alvarado 0-1 HT 0-1 Quilmes Quilmes ARJPBN
10.05.2021 Quilmes Quilmes 3-4 HT 2-2 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Quilmes vs Alvarado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quilmes and Alvarado shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Quilmes at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (68%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alvarado led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Quilmes and 2.33 for Alvarado.

What was the final score of Quilmes vs Alvarado?

Quilmes 1-1 Alvarado in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quilmes vs Alvarado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Quilmes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Quilmes 54%, draw 29%, Alvarado 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Quilmes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Quilmes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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