Emelec 2-1 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 6 May 2024

Emelec
2-1 HT 1-0
Uni. Catolica
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Emelec vs Uni. Catolica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
9%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Emelec v Uni. Catolica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.07/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.34
-31% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.5 Crosses 14.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Emelec vs Uni. Catolica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.30 xG 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
328 Passes 269
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Emelec Emelec 2-1 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica EKV1
21.05.2023 Uni. Catolica 3-2 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
17.10.2022 Uni. Catolica 2-0 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
22.05.2022 Emelec Emelec 0-1 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica EKV1
27.09.2021 Emelec Emelec 2-2 HT 1-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
15.04.2021 Uni. Catolica 2-3 HT 1-2 Emelec Emelec EKV1

Emelec 2-1 Uni. Catolica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
2-1
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.80 xG 1.51
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
253 Passes 407
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec edged past Uni. Catolica 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Emelec as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Emelec had 40% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 60%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 1.80 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Emelec and 1.83 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Uni. Catolica?

Emelec 2-1 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Emelec 41%, draw 26%, Uni. Catolica 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emelec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Emelec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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