Gwangju 2-1 Daejeon Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
4.2
6+ Goals
7%
20.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
16%
4.12
X/2
11%
7.78
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
14%
6.3
2/X
9%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Daejeon Citizen EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
0.99/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.32
-2% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
24.0 Crosses 15.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Daejeon Citizen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.58 xG 0.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
287 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.08.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 3-0 HT 2-0 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen GKOK
10.06.2023 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen 1-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
06.05.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-0 HT 0-0 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen GKOK
02.10.2022 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen 2-2 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR2
30.07.2022 Gwangju Gwangju 1-0 HT 1-0 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen GKOR2
21.06.2022 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen 1-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
2-1
AWAY Daejeon Citizen
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
423 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Daejeon Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju nicked a narrow win over Daejeon Citizen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gwangju as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gwangju had 58% of the ball to Daejeon Citizen's 42%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gwangju had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gwangju and 0.67 for Daejeon Citizen.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Daejeon Citizen?

Gwangju 2-1 Daejeon Citizen in the South Kore - K League Classic on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Daejeon Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 42%, draw 27%, Daejeon Citizen 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gwangju) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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