Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 May 2024

Excelsior
0-3 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.21
Over Pick
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.6
2-3
33%
1.9
4-5
27%
2.88
6+
16%
8.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.94
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
5%
12.1
X/1
14%
5.21
X/2
13%
6.86
X/X
10%
5.22
2/1 ✗
8%
23.15
2/2
13%
4.33
2/X
5%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Excelsior The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen The Market 34%
Bad Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.50 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.34
1.39 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.62
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Great
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
17.7 Crosses 14.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.40 xG 1.51
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
296 Passes 404
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-4 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
19.02.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
09.04.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
08.01.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
06.12.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2

Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
0-3
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.77 xG 1.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
299 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

NEC Nijmegen overpowered Excelsior 3-0 on their travels. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Excelsior at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

The match data tells the story: NEC Nijmegen saw more of the ball, 53% to 47%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.77 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Excelsior against 2.00 for NEC Nijmegen.

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Result & Final Score

Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 47%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Excelsior), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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